The Brazilians will be expected to advance, as it would take something calamitous – and unprecedented – for them to be reeled in by their Malian opponents, even away from home in Bamako.
Here is a look at some facts and figures ahead of the game.
First-leg advantage
Sundowns have never lost a two-legged CAF interclub tie when they have led 3-0 from the opening match. In fact, they have never given up that kind of advantage in any cup tie they have played over two legs. It is very hard to see them doing so this time around. They have lost the second leg in such circumstances, as in the 2016 Champions League final, when they beat Zamalek 3-0 at home and then sat back in Egypt and were defeated 1-0. They lost that battle but won the war as they lifted the trophy.
Rare slip-ups
Sundowns have led after the first leg in 23 knockout ties in the Champions League over the years and won 21 of those ties. The two instances when they did not were in the second round in 2015, when they beat DR Congo side TP Mazembe 1-0 at home in the first leg but lost 3-1 away in Lubumbashi, and in the quarter-finals in 2017, when they beat Wydad Casablanca 1-0 at home but lost by the same scoreline away and were ousted on penalties.
Match record after winning the first leg
After Sundowns claimed those 23 first-leg wins in the Champions League, they went on to win 14 of the second-leg fixtures, with four draws and five losses. On three occasions they lost the second leg and still won the tie, most notably the 2016 final against Zamalek. They also lost 2-0 to Petro Atletico in the semi-finals in 2001 after winning by the same scoreline in the first game, but advanced on penalties. And they lost 1-0 to Al Ahly after hammering them 5-0 in the first leg of their quarter-final in 2018/19.
Sundowns almost always score
In the 46 matches that Sundowns have played in home-and-away Champions League knockout ties after winning the first leg, they have managed at least one goal in all but five of them. That is important as CAF still uses away goals, and should Sundowns get one on Sunday, Stade Malien will need to score five times to win the tie. The instances where Sundowns did not score were the 0-2 defeat to Petro Atletico in the semi-finals in 2001, the second leg of their final with Zamalek in 2016, the quarter-final loss to Wydad in 2017, the second leg of their quarter-final with Al Ahly in 2018/19, and a 0-0 draw with Tunisia’s Esperance in the quarter-finals last year, when Sundowns advanced 1-0 on aggregate.